Jews think of themselves as a minority, but in about thirty years, everybody will be a minority – or nobody will be, according to the first Census Bureau projections based on the 2010 census, which predict that no single ethnic or racial group will constitute a majority of the country by 2043.
“The next half century marks key points in continuing trends – the U.S. will become a plurality nation,” said Acting Director Thomas Mesenbourg in a release attached to the projections, made public last week.
Of course, the concept of race in general and of Jews and race in particular is a complicated one. The census considers Jews white. In 2010, the survey asked respondents if they were of “Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin.”
To ascertain race, the next question offered 15 categories, including White, Black, Chinese, Other Pacific Islander and “Some other race,” a write-in option. Hispanics can be of any race, according to the census.
By 2043, non-Hispanic whites’ share of the population will fall below 50 percent. Non-Hispanic whites’ numbers will fall by about 20 million between 2024, when they will peak at almost 200 million, and 2060.
During that period, the number of both Hispanics and Asians will double.
As the U.S. population diversifies, it will also age. Between 2012 and 2060, according to the bureau’s predictions, the population age 65 and older will more than double to 90.2 million.
The older population will continue to be predominantly non-Hispanic white while younger ages will be increasingly comprised of other groups.